The gin category has an odd forecast in future years.
Although worldwide sales rose 2.5% to about 52 million cases in 2015, global gin consumption is likely to fall over the 2016-21 period, according to a recent report released in part by the International Wines and Spirits Record, thanks to continued volume declines in three key markets: the U.S., Philippines and India.
However, these markets are mainly focused on the lower price levels, the report explains, and their losses will be largely offset by gains of more than 1 million cases for premium and super-premium gins over the same timescale.
And even in the US, where sales are likely to dip below 9 million cases by 2021, consumption falls will disproportionately impact standard and value gins, giving hope to those further up the value chain.
Meanwhile, the category is on fire in Spain, the UK and a number of smaller markets. Spain is predicted to break through the 5 million-case barrier by 2021, while the UK will counteract essentially static volumes with sizeable value gains.
The report warns that the “mind-boggling” number of new gin brands launched over the past decade will lead to an inevitable shake-out, with only the strong surviving in an immensely crowded market. “In order to survive and thrive, new gin brands will have to have one or more of the following: sizeable funds to invest; distinctive branding or flavour profile; a strong local following,” the report says.